Case Study | Indian economy will surge at 9.5% in 2021: Still a probability?

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Image representing India's rise in economy
Image representing India's rise in economy

India’s economy, which shrunk by more than 7% due to the pandemic, is anticipated to rise by 9.5% in 2021. And, according to the latest releases by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday, the country’s economy is expected to rise 8.5% from the current scenario.

The latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released India’s growth projection, and it remains static from its previous WEO update of July; but it is a three-percent point in 2021 and a 1.6% point drop from the projection in April.

As per the newest WEO update, released before the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the world is anticipated to rise at 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9 in 2022.

The United States of America predicted to rise at 6% this year and 5.2% in the next. On the other hand, China predicted to rise at 8% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022, said the IMF.

Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, said that in comparison to their July predictions, the global growth projection for this year has dropped down marginally to 5.9% and will remain the same for 2022 at 4.9%. However, this slight revision could be a deep dip for a few countries.

She said that, due to the worsening pandemic changes, the perspective for the low-income developing country group has been unclear. The decline also reflects more strenuous near-future prospects for the advanced economy group, partially because of supply hassles.

Moreover, she said that projections for some commodity exporters were upgraded on the backdrop of surging commodity prices. The hassles due to the pandemic to contact-intensive industries have led the labor market recovery to noticeably slow down the output recovery in many countries.

She added that, in contradiction, the overall outcome for the emerging market and developing economy group is predicted to remain 5.5% under the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024. That could result in a bigger setback to improvements in living standards.

The foremost policy priority is to vaccinate at least 40% of the population in all the countries by this year’s end and 70% by next year’s mid, said the Indian-American economist.

That will require high-income countries to complete the rest of the vaccine doses, organize with manufacturers to prioritize deliveries, and withdraw trade restrictions while vaccines are flowing.

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