According to the SBI research study Ecowrap, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to expand at roughly 18.5 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal year, with an upward tendency.
This assessment is below the Reserve Bank of India’s April-June Economic growth forecast of 21.4 per cent, said SBI Report .
According to the research, “the anticipated GDP growth for Q1 FY22 would be approximately 18.5 per cent (to upward bias) relying on our ‘Now casting’ model.” The higher increase in the second quarter of 2022, or Q1 FY22, is primarily due to a low starting point. The ‘Nowcasting Model,’ developed by the State Bank of India, includes 41 high-frequency indicators related to labour activity, service activity, and the world economy.
According to the research, gross value added (GVA) is expected to be 15% in Q1FY22. According to the company’s preliminary findings, corporate GVA EBIDTA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) + personnel cost) recovered significantly in Q1 FY22.
According to the data, the corporate GVA of 4,069 enterprises increased by 28.4% in Q1 FY22. However, this is less than development in Q4 FY21, confirming the lower GDP estimates than previously assumed, according to the report.
According to the report, lower mobility leads to lower GDP and higher mobility leads to higher GDP, but the relationship is asymmetric. When mobility declines, economic activity and consequently GDP growth declines; nevertheless, when mobility increases, GDP growth does not increase in the same proportion, according to the report.
”The link between the two has weakened, as evidenced by the drop in mobility in Q1 FY22, although GDP growth remains strong and good. However, the increased y-o-y growth is primarily due to the base effect, according to the analysis.
Nevertheless, the business investment index based on extremely high indicators increased in August 2021, with the most recent reading of 103.3 for the week ended August 16, 2021, according to the report. In Q2 FY22, RTO (regional transport office) collection, electricity consumption, and mobility indices all improved, indicating a good trend in economic growth going forward, according to the study.